Oddly, as a kid, the younger brother (Jamie) of a close friend would always ask for "sides" along with whether he called for heads or tails. And then one day, the coin actually did land on its side for him. We were all dumbfounded. The group concluded (wrongly I believe) that Jamie was undeservedly lucky, for that coin flip and some other reasons.
I give Jamie more credit for the chutzpah of asking for sides, dumb as it seemed at the time. ;)
Also, thanks for this piece. As one who has made many models over the last 40 years, and has made his share of mistakes, we have to approach the subject with humility, and anytime a result seems too promising, we need to be extra careful.
Thanks so much for reading and for this fantastic story, David. I knew it wasn't total fiction when I was writing it! And I totally agree, when the outcome looks too clean, it usually means we’re missing something. Really appreciate you sharing this.
Oddly, as a kid, the younger brother (Jamie) of a close friend would always ask for "sides" along with whether he called for heads or tails. And then one day, the coin actually did land on its side for him. We were all dumbfounded. The group concluded (wrongly I believe) that Jamie was undeservedly lucky, for that coin flip and some other reasons.
I give Jamie more credit for the chutzpah of asking for sides, dumb as it seemed at the time. ;)
Also, thanks for this piece. As one who has made many models over the last 40 years, and has made his share of mistakes, we have to approach the subject with humility, and anytime a result seems too promising, we need to be extra careful.
Thanks so much for reading and for this fantastic story, David. I knew it wasn't total fiction when I was writing it! And I totally agree, when the outcome looks too clean, it usually means we’re missing something. Really appreciate you sharing this.
this held so much- humor, wisdom, poetry... and also somehow gave me hope in a difficult time. Thank you
Wow, thanks Ama! I'm truly honored by that and glad it reached you at the right time.
'Your “Black swan” events seem to waddle through the markets with suspicious regularity, I notice.' haha! Loved this post
That's one of my favorite lines. I hear Taleb’ voice every time I read that part.